Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 1.606960 1.670793 1.737201 1.811715 1.893327 1.980383 2.080789
2025-12-07 1.501921 1.582701 1.669235 1.769525 1.883473 2.010062 2.163011
2025-12-14 1.440900 1.533790 1.635543 1.756500 1.898076 2.060827 2.265667
2025-12-21 1.388071 1.489138 1.601795 1.738464 1.902387 2.096371 2.349468
2025-12-28 1.361985 1.472423 1.597680 1.752800 1.943637 2.176585 2.492909
2026-01-04 1.344271 1.463728 1.601442 1.775400 1.994830 2.271238 2.662743
2026-01-11 1.314443 1.438951 1.584270 1.770647 2.010399 2.320160 2.774663
2026-01-18 1.291256 1.420795 1.573779 1.772905 2.034073 2.380285 2.907418
2026-01-25 1.255378 1.385829 1.541061 1.745065 2.016080 2.381621 2.952670
2026-02-01 1.230795 1.363656 1.523111 1.734961 2.020577 2.413703 3.047111
2026-02-08 1.206649 1.341136 1.503742 1.721860 2.019813 2.437528 3.130224
2026-02-15 1.185442 1.321525 1.487229 1.711563 2.021950 2.465097 3.221842
2026-02-22 1.171845 1.311502 1.483146 1.718384 2.049507 2.534233 3.397169
2026-03-01 1.141531 1.279621 1.449983 1.684650 2.017348 2.509579 3.401936
2026-03-08 1.123484 1.262729 1.435604 1.675751 2.020365 2.539556 3.511159
2026-03-15 1.104167 1.243699 1.417825 1.661400 2.014474 2.554628 3.593741
2026-03-22 1.097704 1.240818 1.420947 1.675858 2.051708 2.642083 3.835105
2026-03-29 1.094421 1.241832 1.429083 1.697448 2.100679 2.753383 4.152365
2026-04-05 1.081596 1.230118 1.419838 1.693868 2.110486 2.797904 4.330334
2026-04-12 1.071728 1.221982 1.415101 1.696454 2.129886 2.860863 4.568252
2026-04-19 1.052031 1.200566 1.391880 1.671437 2.104087 2.839413 4.586402
2026-04-26 1.039011 1.187672 1.379925 1.662467 2.103638 2.864842 4.735727
2026-05-03 1.025486 1.173846 1.366365 1.650672 2.097980 2.879905 4.860688